Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Cymber”) has recently published its Mid-term Outlook Report for the Global Aluminium Alloy Market covering the period 2026–2030. The report concludes that, following five years of rapid supply expansion superimposed with structural divergence in end-use demand, the global aluminium alloy market will gradually exit the previous loose balance over the next five years and enter a new cycle characterized by supply-demand rebalancing and reconstruction of the price-spread structure.
I. Supply Side: Slowdown in New Capacity Additions, Steeper Cost Curve Ahead
From 2021 to 2025, cumulative new primary aluminium capacity additions in China, India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East exceeded 12 million tonnes per year, pushing global effective capacity close to 150 million tonnes. Starting from 2026, however, foreseeable greenfield projects will decrease sharply. The main incremental supply will be limited to a small number of already-approved restart or expansion projects, with annual net capacity growth expected to fall back to 1.5–2.5 million tonnes.
At the same time, a structural upward shift in energy price levels, the formal implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and the deepening of electricity market reforms in China will significantly raise the full cost of marginal capacity. According to Cymber’s estimates, the 90th percentile cost on the global primary aluminium cost curve after 2027 is projected to rise by 18%–25% compared with 2024, resulting in a marked decline in overall supply elasticity.
II. Demand Side: Divergence Between Traditional and Emerging Sectors, Yet Overall Resilience Remains
From 2025 to 2030, global apparent consumption of aluminium alloys is forecast to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8%–3.2%, driven primarily by the following three major segments:
1. Transportation Lightweighting (Passenger Vehicles + Commercial Vehicles):
Benefiting from the continued increase in global new energy vehicle penetration, demand for aluminium alloy sheet, strip, and foil for automotive applications is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6.5%–7.5%. Cumulative new consumption from 2023 to 2030 is projected at approximately 8.5 million tonnes, making it the core driver of incremental demand.
2. Photovoltaics and Energy Storage:
Demand for aluminium frames, mounting structures, and battery foil remains robust, with an expected CAGR of approximately 5% from 2026 to 2030. Growth will be particularly pronounced in markets outside China.
3. Traditional Sectors (Construction, Packaging, Power Cables, etc.):
Growth in these areas will slow to 1%–2% per annum, but their large base will continue to provide stable underlying support.
On aggregate, global apparent consumption of aluminium alloys is projected to reach 108–112 million tonnes (primary aluminium equivalent) by 2030, representing an increase of approximately 18–22 million tonnes compared with 2024.
III. Inventories and Prices: De-stocking Cycle Likely to Commence in Q2 2026
The global aluminium alloy market will remain in an inventory accumulation phase through 2024–2025, with combined exchange and off-exchange inventories expected to peak at around 11–12 million tonnes equivalent. As the pace of new supply additions decelerates sharply while transportation and new-energy demand enters an acceleration phase, Cymber anticipates that global inventories will shift from accumulation to drawdown starting in the second quarter of 2026, with the de-stocking cycle potentially lasting until the end of 2028.
Against this backdrop, the centre of gravity for the LME 3-month aluminium price is expected to gradually rise from the current range of USD 2,200–2,400 per tonne. The average price centre during 2027–2028 is forecast to lie in the USD 2,700–3,000 per tonne range. Correspondingly, the average South China spot price in the domestic market is projected at RMB 19,500–22,000 per tonne. Alloy premiums and processing fees for sheet, strip, and foil products are likely to receive stronger support amid tightening supply-demand fundamentals.
Post time: Nov-28-2025